(Additional comment in Cognitive biases and the start of war and The Heuristics of War.)
A very interesting article that tries to explain how the thought processes of people tend to drive them to enter and prolong conflict.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:
All the biases … incline national leaders to exaggerate the evil intentions of adversaries, to misjudge how adversaries perceive them, to be overly sanguine when hostilities start, and overly reluctant to make necessary concessions in negotiations.
Man, that’s depressing. Before anything starts we’re already headed down the wrong path. Although it’s somehow morbidly reassuring to know that our administration’s management of the war in Iraq doesn’t stand out as absolutely the worst military campaign in the history of mankind. History is strewn with the carcasses of people who thought “We can’t lose! The other side doesn’t stand a chance!”
See: Boise State and Florida.
Equal time: (also from the Foreign Policy article)
Matthew Continetti of the conservative Weekly Standard and Matthew Yglesias of the liberal American Prospect square off in an FP web exclusive debate. Kahneman and Renshon respond to the debate here.
